DISASTER MANAGEMENT.
Posted by bmhegde on 1
Human life on this planet is an adventure and a gamble. One has to face life as it comes; disasters are but natural consequences of this kind of existence. It is not possible either to predict disasters or to prevent them altogether. That does not mean that one need not be careful at all. There is no need, however, to worry all the time about the impending disaster. Many of us have the wrong impression that science can predict the future correctly for us to take precautions.
Kobe in Japan had the best super-computers for weather predictions, but even seconds before the major earthquake there in the recent past, did they know that it was coming. Similar is the story of the San Francisco earthquake. The day-to-day weather predictions go wrong most of the time. Edward Lorenz was the professor of physics at Berkeley University, when he got his Nobel Prize for finding out the means of predicting the weather, using the simple traffic problems in the heating system of the world by the sun. He very soon realized that these predictions rarely came true. It was then that he propounded the Butterfly Effect. He said “After I feed all my data into the computer, if a butter fly were to move its wings in Beijing agitating the air, there could be storms in New York the following month.” The butterfly effect is the cause of all our disasters.
That said, I must hasten to add that if we do not take the usual precautions in life, under special circumstances, when problems arise we end up feeling guilty. Industrial safety precautions are an example. If a high rise building is built without any fire safety precautions, fire disasters will certainly kill more people than in another building where the norms have been strictly followed. There is, therefore, a definite place for proper planning of all human actions, especially when lives of others are involved. An aircraft must always be checked before a flight. That need not necessarily ensure a safe flight, but the chances of safe landing are higher. All precautions, humanly possible, should always be taken in any situation.
Why then do we encounter disasters after we have taken all precautions as per scientific guidelines? Is not science perfect? What is science any way? These are all million dollar questions; the answers to which are hidden deep down in Nature’s bosom. Science only tries to unravel the mysteries of Nature. It could never be perfect and rarely does it answer the question why?! “Positive science” said Charles Sherrington in 1899, when he was appointed professor in the Liverpool University, “can never answer the question why? It could, at best, answer the questions How? Or How Much?. Ratio rei is therefore not reason why.” How true! “ Sciences do not explain, they do not even try to explain- they make models-mathematical constructs, which with verbal additions are supposed to work.” Said John van Neumann, years ago.
Richard Marsdon was the chief of astronomy at the Harvard University when he predicted that on the 20th October 2028 exactly at 12.10 US central time there will circle this earth an asteroid of a mile diameter at a distance of 30,000 miles from the planet earth. There is a slight chance of that colliding with the earth, he warned. This was terrifying as a much smaller asteroid had hit this earth thousands of years ago. The dust then rose blocked off sun’s rays from the earth for months on end that all vegetations died out killing even the dinosaurs. In fact, the latter became extinct after that. The following day Donald Yeoman, chief of astronomy at the NASA, put his computer to work and got a few extra data. He could then precisely proclaim that the asteroid mentioned by Marsdon would certainly circle the earth at that time on that day (correct to the second) but would be circling at a distance of 6,00,000 miles and not 30,000 miles as predicted earlier. People felt a sigh of relief as Yeoman assured them that this particular asteroid can never hit the planet earth. Those planning their holidays in 2028 must have felt very much relieved, indeed.
These are not called mistakes in science; they are called uncertainties. The only certainty in science is uncertainty. Newton’s Laws of Deterministic Predictability were proved wrong by Einstein’s Theory of Relativity. The latter did not work in space. Quantum physics today is looking for a solution to the mystery of the hydrons. The only theory that has stood the test of time is the “Uncertainty Principle” of Werner Heisenberg. Although condemned by both Einstein and Neils Bohr, both teachers of Heisenberg in the Zurich Polytechnic, nearly thirty years later Heisenberg got his Nobel Prize. That little atom scientists tried and split is teaching mankind a lesson today-true to the predictions of a great guru of physics, Max Bohm. He had taught physics to all the three original nuclear physicists: Oppenheimer, (American) Neils Bohr, (Scandinavian) and Enrico Fermi (Italian). When all of them were trying to split the atom, the old man had written: “I am very proud of the cleverness of my pupils; how I wish they had used a bit of their wisdom in place of their cleverness.”
Be that as it may, let us look at the way we could handle disasters. In my opinion, the most important asset of disaster management is a cool and strong head. Anxious, confused, fearful, and worried minds could ill afford to be in charge. Every institution should have one or two men earmarked to take charge in the unlikely event of a disaster. They should be tested psychologically to be fit for the job. They should also have proper training in the job. When disaster strikes we should be prepared, as these are not exceptions but, the rules, in Nature. Nature has its own reasons for the disasters but they are not clear to ordinary mortals, however high and mighty in science one could claim to be. Even the great and arrogant masters have come to grief, as shown above.
Why have we reached this helpless situation despite the fact that we claim to have advanced very much in our scientific pursuits, spending billions of dollars in cash? Modern science is dying a natural death because of specialization and sub-specialization, trying to know more and more about less and less and eventually great scientists have reached a stage of knowing more and more about nothing. This reductionist science has taken us away from the truth. The truth is lost when we look at bits and pieces instead of the whole at any given time, as nothing in this universe works in bits and pieces. New science of Fractals and Chaos is emerging in the distant horizon. The uncertainties of the calculations of the two top astronomers, cited above, could easily be understood when one understands the new science of chaos. That is the rule in the dynamic universe. A minor change in the initial state of any system could build into a large difference over a period of time. Predicting the future needs the complete and total knowledge; even a minute difference could build into an enormous difference as time evolves. That is the reason for the huge difference in the calculations of the two astronomers. Scientists have been predicting the unpredictable using the conventional linear mathematics. The Dutch have a jocular way of putting it. Watenchap is wot watencoppen doen. Translated to English it says Science is what scientists do. Can’t be faulted a wee bit! Let us hope that Chaos (not its literal meaning of entropy) will give a better understanding of the world. Holistic science is the answer to the uncertainties of the reductionist science. The Indian wisdom of yore had this advice in our scriptures.
Poornamidam, Poornam Adaha,
……Poornasya Poornamaadaaya,
Poornam ivaevashishtathe……..!
[This is a whole, that is a whole…If a bit is removed from the whole, the bits becomes the whole and the whole remains a whole, anyway]
Some of the scientists in the West had also thought of the Indian wisdom. David Bohm, a physicist, had talked of the holistic science of the East in no uncertain terms. He was even giving the analogy of the hologram, where illuminating one bit illuminates the whole. Fritjof Capra, another American physicist, claimed that the electron danced like Lord Shiva on Mount Kailash!
Most disasters are due to the inflexible laws of Nature. They have a common cure in our Sankya school of Philosophy viz: Chitta vritti Nirodaha. [Avoid undulations of the mind]. Keep a cool head under stress and work patiently. The other name for disaster management is stress management, indeed!