MAJOR HEALTH PROBLEMS IN THE NEXT MILLENIUM
ACTION PLAN

Prof  B M Hegde
Vice Chancellor
MAHE University
Manipal - 576119

"Take up the White Man's Burden
 The savage wars of peace -
 Fill full the month of famine
 And bid the sickness cease."
          Rudyard Kipling.

People all over the developed West are trying hard to sell to the third world the idea of a potential health disaster for us in the new millennium in the form of major degenerative diseases like heart diseases, high blood pressure, diabetes and strokes. On the surface it looks both frightening and insurmountable, unless we follow their action plan of screening for these in society and be ready with the drugs and hi-tech surgical techniques to combat the menace. Efforts are on to buy some of our good brains to spread this logic all over the third world, especially in India and China, where there are large untapped potential markets for drugs and technology.

They do not bother about our own drugs and health delivery systems, not to speak of the enormous potential of the available remedial preventive measures, even if the threat is real, instead of the top heavy palliative (not curative) measures!

It is true that the population growth in our country is still not arrested while in many western countries it is either decreasing or is, at least, not increasing. They envisage a large chunk of their population in the next millennium to be in the above sixty category (70% of the population). Naturally, they could expect to see degenerative diseases go up exponentially there. That would be their real problem. Our scenario would be totally different.

More than sixty per cent of our population in the next millennium would be in the second decade. We would have totally different type of problems of adolescence viz.: AIDS, drug addictions, infective diseases, nutritional disorders, violence, tobacco and alcohol related diseases, and road accident deaths in place of their load of degenerative diseases.

Our priorities at the moment are: clean drinking water to our masses, toilet facilities in all our villages, avoidance of animal and human excreta getting mixed with human food, reducing atmospheric pollution in our metropolitan cities, and avoiding cooking fumes from getting into the houses in the villages endangering young childrens’ lungs, in addition to increasing our food output. The last is the most important since hunger is one of the main causes of death and disease in the poorer sections.

Poverty is now known to be the mother of all degenerative diseases, since the greatest human distress is not knowing where your next meal comes from. In addition, poverty also is a double-edged weapon. While it increases the incidence of all ailments from common cold to cancer, it makes the victim lose his working days by further pushing him into the bottomless pit of perpetual want. Third world countries should work overtime to economically empower their masses in the villages. These measures would, to a great extent, look after our immediate threat in the new millennium.

Modern medical wisdom comes in handy here for us to avoid any future threat of degenerative diseases should they show up when our present generation of children grow to the sixth and seventh decades in the third world. Most, if not all, degenerative diseases get born in the mother’s womb in the first trimester of her pregnancy. It is there that the foetus forms its heart, blood vessels and pancreas, to name a few. These structures, if not formed well, could encourage the onset of heart diseases, high blood pressure, diabetes and other vascular accidents in adult life! It is known now that mother’s nutrition in the first trimester of pregnancy is of vital importance to avoid this menace.

The next period in life when these diseases get their encouragement is childhood and adolescence when bad food habits, alcohol and tobacco could further ensure the progress of degenerative diseases in later life.

Action Plan
1. The comprehensive village development plan should include water supply, toilets, education about common foods available in the village, and also some methods to uplift the economic condition of the villagers. Smokeless choolas should be supplied to all houses.
2. Pregnant mothers should get special attention regarding their diet, more so in the first trimester. Proper nutritional advice should avoid undernourishment during that crucial period in the life of the foetus.
3. Compulsory breast feeding education to be given to all mothers. In case the breast milk is inadequate other human milk, if available, is good enough but not cow’s milk! Instead the baby could be given fruit juices and cereals in an easily digestible form. This could avoid many other diseases in later life, like the auto-immune diseases.
4. Effective education, to keep tobacco and alcohol at bay, aimed at the adolescents using different methods suitable to different set-ups, should be started.
5. Our primary education should change in such a way that it inculcates the essence of Indian education of the yore-humility. Humility begets better life habits. Anger, pride, jealousy, hatred, and ego get suppressed to give place to love, compassion, and camaraderie. The former are now known to be important risk factors for major degenerative diseases.
6. Proper health education of children in school about the dangers of alcohol, tobacco, and also sexually transmitted diseases will go a long way in reducing the future problems of drug addiction and AIDS, which are going to be our big problems in the next millennium.
7. Better roads and stricter licensing procedures should decrease road accident deaths. Coupled with a war on alcohol this should yield better results. The only truly avoidable deaths are accidental deaths. Punishment for careless driving should be more stringent to persuade rich kids from rash driving in larger cities.
8. Family planning should be pursued on war footing. In the villages, where the bulk of India lives, men are at fault. The best way to educate the men in the village is to catch the village barber. The latter is an incessant talker and also has a lot of influence on all the men in the village. If we could properly educate the barbers and then give them an incentive, that could work wonders in addition to the conventional methods followed.
9. Screening whole populations for high blood pressure, heart disease and diabetes to get them under the net of doctors, drug companies, and instrument manufacturers to fix the defect would look good on paper. It can work in the laboratory, but it does not work in the population, and it is definitely not cost effective.
10. In addition, screening apparently healthy populations could even be counter-productive. “It could seriously damage the health of the population”. Past experience has shown that screening increases sick absenteeism in society making more people sick! It also increases false positives.
11. Screening a population of one billion is not feasible. Screening only the urban elite is also not going to help. This would certainly net more people into the system for treatment and also get more hapless victims for intervention in the present top heavy hi-tech medical field, but would not change the scenario as far as the imaginary threat of the degenerative disease epidemics, as predicted. Predicting the future is impossible. “We have been predicting the unpredictable”.
12. Reliable studies even in the West have shown that the so-called epidemic rise of certain degenerative diseases and their subsequent fall has been spurious and flawed heavily.
13. Life style modifications have been palpably more effective in containing these diseases even in the West. While the effect of life style modifications has been 59.4% effective in reducing the incidence of coronary artery disease, interventional methods have only been effective to the tune of 3.4%. The story is not different in the field of drug therapy, either. The famous MRC study of mild to moderate hypertension treatment, which has 85,000 patient years of experience, clearly showed that to save one life from stroke we have treat 850 apparently healthy people in society with anti-hypertensive drugs unnecessarily.
14. These speak volumes about the very effective role of life style modifications in altering the future incidence of degenerative diseases.
15. Coupled with the prohibitive cost of population screenings and their attendant dangers to human health it makes lot of sense for third world countries to concentrate all their efforts in modifying the life style of their populace to contain these dreaded diseases even if they were expected in the next millennium.
16. Here the role of tobacco and alcohol has to be stressed. We have to fight the powers-that-be that try and push these two evils on society with all our might.
17. Another area is the field of diet for our adolescents. Indian vegetarian diet has a lot to recommend it to them in place of the modern junk non-vegetarian food, which seems to be invading the world of the young in a big way. Nutrition based education should start in the elementary school itself.
18. Need to have physical exercise is the next area  to be stressed. This could be done in many ways aimed at the younger generation.
19. The need to keep the human mind filled with universal love to avoid hostility and depression-the two most important risk factors for heart and vessel diseases in addition to cancer –has to be stressed right from day one in school.
20. Economic empowerment of our masses is of vital importance to avoid future epidemics of vascular degenerative diseases.

The need of the hour is the courage to implement these right away and keep the pressures on population screening and mass drugging only to the symptomatic in society, thus bringing down the cost of curative medicine to affordable limits.

Would someone listen please?

I’m sick of gruel, and the dietetics,
I’m sick of pills, and sicker emetics,
I’m sick of pulses, tardiness or quickness,
I’m sick of blood, its thinness and thickness,-
In short, within a word, I’m sick of sickness!

                 Thomas Hood, `Fragment’, c. 1844. 



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